Dear subscribers,
I’m excited to share a sneak peek at two powerful analytics tools we’re building, both of which will be included in your current subscription at no extra cost. These tools are designed to help you make smarter, data-driven decisions—whether you’re trading equities or options.
1. Monte-Carlo Simulations for Options Strategies
Designed to enhance your strategy analysis, this tool will leverage Monte-Carlo simulations to evaluate the performance of put credit spreads—a popular options strategy. By simulating thousands of potential market scenarios, it will estimate key metrics like the probability of profit, average days to close a position, and risk-reward ratios. You’ll also visualize the strategy’s potential outcomes through an intuitive P&L curve and compare critical levels like breakeven points and strike prices.
The tool integrates real-time market data for strikes, volatility, and pricing, streamlining your workflow. While still in development, this tool aims to empower traders like you to make data-driven decisions and optimize strategies with confidence. Stay tuned for updates—we’re working hard to bring this innovation to your screen soon! 💥📈
2. Option-Implied Probability Engine
This tool taps directly into live option chains to read the market’s own forecast. By collecting bid/ask quotes across different strikes and expirations, we construct a risk-neutral probability distribution for the underlying asset. You simply enter a price threshold and a time horizon, and our engine uses Black-Scholes formulas and Monte-Carlo simulations to calculate the likelihood of ending above (or below) that level by expiration. You’ll also get confidence bands, so you can see how precise each estimate really is. It’s like having the collective wisdom of all option-market participants distilled into a single percentage.
3. Credit Put Spread Scanner
This tool will aim, when the markets are open, to scan all options strategies called "Credit Put Spread" in order to find the one with the best probability of success according to Monte Carlo simulations. The results will be presented in a simple and easily readable way for users.
4. Fourier Probability
The Fourier probability method will estimate the likelihood that a financial asset will exceed a given threshold within a specified time horizon by leveraging Fourier transforms. This approach will analyze logarithmic returns to calculate distribution parameters (mean and variance) over a selected period. Then, it will use a complex integral to evaluate the characteristic function of returns, providing a precise estimate of the probability of crossing the chosen threshold.
No Extra Fees, Same Subscription
Both of these sophisticated tools will be part of your existing plan—no add-ons, no hidden charges. Soon you’ll be able to access them through our dashboard, customize your thresholds and horizons, and watch the probabilities update in real time. We’re also planning guided tutorials and live Q&A sessions to help you get the most out of these new capabilities.
Stay tuned for launch dates and step-by-step walk-throughs. We can’t wait to see how you’ll integrate these tools into your trading process and take your strategies to the next level!